Thursday, September 4, 2008

The Numerati: casting OR folks in an evil light?


I think it is great that operations research is getting some publicity with The Numerati. However, there can be such a thing as a bad publicity. Is it just me or does it seem to everybody (OR folks) that this book is casting us in a rather negative light? I think the general notion is already that the numbers guys are not to be trusted (at least in certain health care places). Now this book may be saying how smart we are and all that, but with a bit of an evil undertone. Just the title itself, "how they will get my number and yours", is painting us as some kind of math hackers out to steal people's information, isn't it?

I have mixed feelings about this book, but I am curious to read it. I just hope we won't scare anybody more than now when us OR people walk down a hospital isle.

Feel free to voice you thoughts on The Numerati.

Sunday, August 31, 2008

The Numerati (new book): Doing Business the Math Way

Most of the readers of this blog must have seen the announcement in the latest INFORMS eNews. I would like to share with the rest of the world the news of the release of a book that will make us famous. The book is called "The Numerati" in reference to mathematical modelers who are rocking the business world. It certainly sounds more catchy than "Operations Engineer" "Operations Researcher" or "Operations Scientist".

Links:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_36/b4098032904806.htm

http://thenumerati.net/

Saturday, August 9, 2008

OR Career Path Talk by Jason Goto

Jason Goto came to the University of British Columbia and gave an informal talk & Q&A on career path in Operations Research as part of the INFORMS UBC Student Chapter event series. It was a very open dialogue appreciated by the audience. Here are some highlights from this talk.

Job Market:
Work opportunities in operations research locally in Vancouver is rather limited. It includes
  • The big health authorities: Fraser Health Authorities, Coastal Health Authorities, BC Cancer Agency, etc.
  • and maybe some engineering firms, such as Sandwell Engineering
Particularly, if an OR professional is looking for good job opportunities, one should consider relocation to the east coast or the States. However, we live in Vancouver because of a lifestyle choice, so if that's clear, prepare to sacrifice in pay and business opportunities. 

Jason stressed on the importance of critical mass of OR group to sustain an OR operation and presence within an organization. If an organization has only a few OR professionals working, they may not be able to achieve enough to show the importance of OR; and if someone leaves or goes on vacation, things grind to a halt and will take a long time to get back on track.


OR Consulting:
If an OR professional is thinking of going into consultancy by joining a consulting agency, then those companies will value the consulting/business/soft skills much more than they do about your technical OR skills. However, an OR professional should possess the following skill set:
  • data skills
  • consulting & communication skills (written & verbal)
  • change management
  • empathy - put yourself in other's shoes to help them understand your view
There are quite a few very small OR consulting companies with 1 to 3 people. Mostly they are academics doing consulting on the side. These small outfits don't tend to grow, because it is simply easier to do the work with only a few people, especially if you want the work to be done well, without much administration and supervision.

Jason's operations research consulting company, AnalysisWorks, incorporated in 2000, has been growing 25% a year. He has groomed it to an 8 person outfit - a steady, unaggressive growth since the start.

Starting a consulting company, the first year is the hardest. Everyone is against you if you have no credentials or portfolios to show. It is difficult to get the consulting projects because of that. Especially if you look too young (if you are starting out early), people don't take you seriously. You wonder if you are getting your market value. However, on the other hand, if you start the company when you are older, there are elements pressing against you as well: family, dog, house, pension, etc.  Some people may choose to start a company in groups. This requires careful consideration and an early agreement on who does what, just like in a marriage. If one partner is good at selling and the other good at doing, the two must agree on how they will operate together and the compensation scheme. Otherwise, break-ups could be very bad - again, just like marriages.

In general, it is difficult to get the OR consulting projects. If 10 companies are contacted, 1 may come back with some interest. Most people think the work is good, but do not think it absolutely necessary. The good clients are the ones that really, really need your help, because otherwise their jobs and the company's survival is on the line.

Over-delivery is a consultant's own loss. Clients may have been more than happy with the less than perfect solution, compared to a perfect solution which could have taken hours of the consultant's time - exhausting the budget that way.

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Decision Making Model on Stroke Prevention: Warfarin or not

An interesting talk I attended at the CORS 2008 conference in Quebec City was by Beste Kucukyazici from the Faculty of Management of McGill University. The topic of the talk was “Designing Antithrombotic Therapy for Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation”.

Beste Kucukyazici showed the study of stroke patient data to see if a decision model could be derived to systematically decide on the commencing of warfarin treatment for stroke patient and its intensity. Now my question is: will OR decision models take a bigger and bigger foothold in the future of medical arena as we start to gather more useful patient data in well-planned studies? Medical doctors tend to argue that each patient has a different case, and need to be examined on an individual basis. However, if a model such as Kucukyazici’s can prove the accuracy of its decision given real patient data, then it would probably start to weaken the doctor’s argument and favour a more systematic approach. At least, such models might help reduce the complexity of doctor’s decision making process, or even reduce chances for human errors in diagnosis.

Atrial fibrillation, which is a common arrhythmia particularly common among the elderly, is one of the major independent risk factors of stroke. Several randomized control trials have shown that long-term antithrombotic therapy with warfarin significantly reduces the risk of stroke, however, it also increases the risk of suffering a major bleed. Given the potential benefits and risks of warfarin treatment, the decisions that need to be made by the clinicians are two-fold: (i) whether to start the therapy, and (ii) the intensity of warfarin use. The objective of this study is to develop an analytical framework for designing the optimal antithrombotic therapy with a patient-centered approach. The approach seeks to create a rational framework for evaluating these complex medical decisions by incorporation of complex probabilistic data into informed decision making, the identification of factors influencing such decisions and permitting explicit quantitative comparison of the benefits and risks of different therapies.

Jason Goto on Operations Research Career Path – July 18, 2008

Jason Goto, President of AnalysisWorks, is invited by the INFORMS UBC Student Chapter to give an informal talk on O.R. career path on July 18, 2008. The event will be held at the Penthouse in the Henry Angus building on UBC campus at 2:30-3:30pm.

Invited audience include current and incoming Master of Management in Operations Research (MM in OR) students & alumni of the Centre for Operations Excellence (COE), Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia.

Wondering what career path in OR you would like to choose?

Wondering how OR consulting is done?

Want to meet the guy who started AnalysisWorks
– one of the only OR consulting firms in Vancouver?

If you happen to be in Vancouver, then join us on Friday, July 18, 2:30-3:30pm at the Penthouse of the Henry Angus building on UBC campus.

Jason Goto, BASc Engineering, MSc Management Science: President
Jason Goto has consulted in a wide variety of projects involving the application of analytic data-driven methods. He has worked with major health care organizations, market research firms, manufacturers, and other private and public organizations. He specializes in the effective application of Operations Research and Management Science techniques including scenario analysis, statistics, forecasting, simulation, and optimization. (From AnalysisWorks.net)

Monday, June 2, 2008

ORAHS 2008 in Toronto Canada

The 34th annual conference on Operations Research Applied to Health Services will be held in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, on July 28 - Aug 1, 2008. 

The ORAHS was formed in 1975 in Europe, and it is usually held in Europe as well. This year, however, Canada has the honour of hosting it.

Check here for more details on the ORAHS 2008 conference.

Mike Carter on New Challenges for OR Applications in Health Care

I had the pleasure of meeting Professor Michael W. Carter at the Canadian Operations Research Society conference (CORS) in Quebec City, and listening to his plenary talk on "New Challenges for Operations Research Applications in Health Care" - the kick-off talk for this year's CORS conference on May 12th, 2008.

Professor Carter is one of the Canadian leading experts in healthcare and operations research, with over 17 years of experience in OR applications in healthcare. He currently leads the Centre for Research in Healthcare Engineering, Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto. Click here for more information on Professor Mike Carter.

Mike has been very kind to allow me to publish his talk here on ThinkOR.org. Here are some key points to take away:
  • Healthcare is North America's single largest industry; Canada spent $142 billion CDN in 2005; US spent $2 trillion.

  • Canada's per-capita spending ($3,326 USD) was half of US ($6,401 USD), and this is how it's been growing:

  • US & Canada are about the same in terms of quality of health care, access, efficiency , and equity (based on the Commonwealth Fund 2004 International Health Policy Survey)

  • A new way of looking at the healthcare system's stakeholders (no wonder it's difficult to make decisions in a hospital):
  • Challenges in healthcare system can be viewed as operations research challenges:

    • Patient flow - supply chain

    • Surgical wait list - better scheduling

    • Infectious diseases - logistics

    • Health human resources - forecasting


Mike also demonstrated the application of O.R. techniques in his own practice:

  • Ontario Wait List Management

  • Colorectal cancer screening

  • Cancer treatment centre locations

  • Health Human Resource Modelling

Thank you Mike for allowing me to write about your talk. It was delightful to see OR in action in the Canadian healthcare. We look forward to seeing the 30% potential waste of money spent in healthcare to shrink fast.

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Edelman Award: The Oscar of O.R.

The 2008 Edelman award winner is...(drum roll please...)

The Netherlands Railways!
Traffic on the railway nearly doubled between 1970 and 2006, but its timetable had not changed, leading to commuting problems...

Restructuring increased the percentage of trains arriving within three minutes of schedule from 84.8 percent in 2006 to 87 percent in 2007, while the number of passengers increased 2 percent in the first six months of 2007.

Profit, meanwhile, rose $60 million and the changes made additional capacity available...
Read more about it here. Or watch the YouTube reward ceremony here - pretty dramatic stage, eh! That's why it's the Oscar of Operations Research. :)

SiMMOR going to CORS Conference in Quebec City: May 12 - 14, 2008

The Canadian Operations Research Society (CORS) is holding its annual conference in Quebec City, Canada on May 12, 13, & 14th.

Team SiMMOR - Simulation by Masters of Management in Operations Research, is going to the beautiful and classy Quebec City! We are invited to present our simulation project as the top 5 finalists on the simulation competition of "Slim Nortons" restaurant operation on May 12-14th, 2008.

The team SiMMOR is composed of 4 members:
Details of the conference can be found here.

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Making Decisions at Procter & Gamble: O.R.

Procter & Gamble (P&G), a $76 billion dollar company in annual sales, with 138,000 employees, and operating in over 80 countries, relies heavily on operations research for answer these questions and making important business decisions, such as:


  • which brand should be used for new products

  • how to choose suppliers to procure and source materials

  • how to use forecasting to deal with the factors impacting international trade and finance

  • how much inventory to store and where

  • how to keep and attract workforce talents for the company

It is obvious that OR applications in businesses can make a company very powerful, but it takes the OR talents who can talk business to do it. To quote Brenda Dietrich, an IBM fellow at IBM’s Watson Research Center:



There’s a gap between the math professionals and the nonmath executives in
many companies. The companies who have people who can walk into a business meeting and tell executives how to use OR tools are the ones who’ve got the edge. Deployment is no longer done just by the math people; analytics has become much more usable by a broader set of people within an organization.


Click here to view the full article.